Penalties

In an NHL game, the next penalty is easier to predict than the next goal

It’s NHL playoff season, which means that, given the relative league parity, every call and no-call comes under a microscope. In the third period of close games, for example, a penalty call alone can decrease a team’s chance of winning by 10 percentage points or more. One characteristic of NHL games that a few prominent members of the media have picked up on is that penalty calls tend to “even-up” within a game – that is, it is unlikely that either team ends the game with a substantially larger number of penalties than its opponent.